Sensitivity

Stress the geometry

Maple Manufacturing Co. · grids recompute from the live engine · active: Base

ReturnsDeal memo

What moves the IRR

base 28.2%

Each assumption shocked one at a time, everything else held. The widest bars are the assumptions your thesis lives or dies on.

Entry multiple ±0.5x
21.8%37.4%
±7.8%
EBITDA margin ±2pp
23.4%32.4%
±4.5%
Revenue growth ±2pp/yr
25.2%31.1%
±2.9%
Exit multiple ±0.5x
25.4%30.7%
±2.7%
Exit 1 year earlier / later
26.1%29.9%
±1.9%
Capex ±1pp of revenue
26.8%29.5%
±1.3%
Senior rate ±1pp
28.0%28.4%
±0.2%

Breakevens vs hurdle

How far each assumption can fall (alone) before the Base case stops clearing 15%. Current IRR 28.2% — clears the hurdle

AssumptionCurrentBreakevenCushion
Exit multiple4.50x2.49x2.01x
EBITDA margin (flat)18.9%never crosses—
Revenue growth (flat)3.6%never crosses—

Margin and growth breakevens flatten the yearly vectors to a single value — same convention as the grid below.

Entry multiple × Exit multiple

Investor IRR

Rows: Entry multiple · Columns: Exit multiple. Base case cell highlighted.

Entry multiple \ Exit multiple2.9x3.7x4.5x5.3x6.1x
2.7x75.7%83.5%90.2%96.1%101.3%
3.5x32.5%38.4%43.5%47.9%51.8%
4.2x18.4%23.7%28.2%32.1%35.7%
4.9x10.2%15.1%19.3%23.0%26.3%
5.7x4.6%9.2%13.2%16.7%19.8%

Revenue growth × EBITDA margin

Investor IRR

Rows: Revenue growth (flat) · Columns: EBITDA margin (flat). Base case cell highlighted.

Revenue growth (flat) \ EBITDA margin (flat)14.9%16.9%18.9%20.9%22.9%
10.0%26.1%31.7%36.5%40.7%44.4%
9.4%25.3%30.9%35.7%39.9%43.6%
8.8%24.4%30.1%34.9%39.1%42.8%
8.2%23.5%29.2%34.0%38.2%42.0%
7.6%22.7%28.4%33.2%37.4%41.1%

How to read this

  • Tornado ranks assumptions by how much they alone move the IRR — defend the top two before anything else.
  • Breakevens quantify the cushion: how much an assumption can deteriorate before returns drop below your hurdle.
  • Entry × Exit answers: “What if we pay a different multiple, or exit at a different one?” Debt structure stays fixed.
  • Growth × Margin flattens operating assumptions for the active scenario — classic PE table to show underwriting range.
  • The highlighted cell is nearest to your current deal / scenario averages. Heat color: orange = weaker, blue = stronger.