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Maple Manufacturing Co.

Three scenarios. One deal. Understand the range of outcomes.

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Investor IRR

28.2%

16.3% – 36.9%

Investor MOIC

3.5x

2.1x – 4.8x

Investor Proceeds

$14.4M

on $4.2M invested

Debt Paydown

74%

exit leverage 0.5x

Exit EBITDA

$4.7M

19.5% margin · Y5

Min DSCR

1.83x

lowest coverage · 2026

Sparring check — no hits landed

No structural red flags in the base case. Now stress-test it: would you still do the deal at downside?

Investor value path

Downside 16.3%Base 28.2%Upside 36.9%

Scenario summary (Year 2030)

Metric	Downside	Base	Upside
Revenue	$21.3M	$24M	$28.5M
EBITDA	$3.5M	$4.7M	$6.1M
EBITDA margin	16.5%	19.5%	21.5%
FCF	$1.7M	$2.6M	$3.6M
Exit TEV	$15.8M	$21.1M	$27.6M
Equity value	$8.9M	$14.4M	$20.1M
Equity IRR	16.3%	28.2%	36.9%
MOIC	2.1x	3.5x	4.8x

Free cash flow — Base

$1.8M

2026

$1.9M

2027

$2.2M

2028

$2.4M

2029

$2.6M

2030

Leverage Paydown — Base

Senior debt (blue) + seller note (orange), end of year

Financial Model — Base

$ thousands. Every line derives from the assumptions.

Line item	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	2030E
Revenue	20,707	21,332	22,194	23,090	24,022
EBITDA	3,810	3,946	4,217	4,387	4,684
EBITDA margin	18.4%	18.5%	19.0%	19.0%	19.5%
D&A	-621	-640	-666	-693	-721
EBIT	3,189	3,307	3,551	3,694	3,964
Interest (all debt)	-700	-606	-507	-399	-284
Taxes	-622	-675	-761	-824	-920
Net income	1,867	2,025	2,283	2,471	2,760
Capex	-621	-640	-666	-693	-721
Δ NWC	-73	-75	-103	-108	-112
Free cash flow	1,794	1,950	2,180	2,364	2,648
Mandatory amort	-700	-700	-700	-700	-700
Cash sweep	-547	-625	-740	-832	-756
Revolver paydown	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Senior debt (end)	5,753	4,428	2,988	1,456	0
Mezz (end)	0	0	0	0	0
Seller note (end)	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500
Earn-out (end)	0	0	0	0	0
Revolver (end)	0	0	0	0	0
Cash (end)	547	1,172	1,912	2,744	3,935
DSCR	1.83x	2.01x	2.31x	2.61x	3.09x

Deal summary

Purchase price (EV)$15.5M
Total debt$9.5M
Equity invested (total)$6.5M
Investor equity$4.2M
Holding period5 years
Exit multiple4.5x
Debt / EBITDA at exit0.5x
Entry leverage2.6x

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Scenario Comparison

Same deal, three futures. Which one do you defend?

Metric	Downside	Base	Upside
Investor IRR	16.3%	28.2%	36.9%
Investor MOIC	2.1x	3.5x	4.8x
Exit EBITDA	$3.5M	$4.7M	$6.1M
Exit Enterprise Value	$15.8M	$21.1M	$27.6M
Exit Net Debt	$2M	$-1.4M	$-3.8M
Total equity proceeds	$13.9M	$22.5M	$31.3M
Investor proceeds	$8.9M	$14.4M	$20.1M
Min DSCR	1.45x	1.83x	1.95x

Model conventions (challenge them)

Interest accrues on beginning-of-year balances.
Taxes only on positive pre-tax income — no NOL carryforwards.
FCF = Net income + D&A − Capex − ΔNWC.
Debt service: mandatory senior amort → cash sweep on senior → excess FCF pays the revolver. Mezz, seller note and earn-out are bullets at exit.
Exit: TEV = exit-year EBITDA × exit multiple; equity = TEV − net debt. No interim dividends — equity flows are entry and exit only.

Deliberate MVP simplifications, stated so a finance partner can challenge each one. KUKO does not provide investment advice.